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7:30 Outlook Commentary
by: Jody Lefcourt
As of 1/22/18...
GOOD MORNING, Technically Ag prices are higher around the board with strength coming from 1. net fund short positions, 2. chatter in the back-ground about the size of the Argentine bean crop perhaps being lower and 3. concerns over acreage for corn as we begin to move into the new growing season and 4. concerns over dryness in the southern plains impacting wheat. Point 2 illustrates why meal is so strong, as it certainly has sponsored a number of rallies.
Tech talk: The laggards in terms of technicals continue to be wheat and soyoil, This morning, wheat seems to be content once more to travel sideways with March soyoil futures finally gaining some traction to the upside of its new trading range low of 32c. Meal futures placed a new high at $336.20. The March corn contract will open up against the same high placed on January 3, which is quite interesting given the 200,000 plus short sitting under the market. They are watching today's open carefully, though as has been noted in the past when markets close strong they tend to open in the same fashion. Same case for March beans, where the 200 day moving average crosses at the high of the morning at $9.85 3/4. If farmers are not there to sell it, look for funds to begin to cover if we cross major levels of key resistance noted - - and frankly, think that is the set-up today.
Futures / options combined positions: beans: net short 93,000 meal: net long 18,000 soyoil: net short 14,000 corn: net short 216,000 wheat: net short 138,900
In the macro world the markets seem to be shrugging off the government shut-down, however government reports will not be released until we see it re-open. Crude oil is in the green with a $63.63 /barrel high and the US dollar is weaker.